中国联通(600050.SH)光大证券财务报表与盈利预测202120222023E2024E2025E202120222023E2024E2025E327854354944381,658407846435,012593,284644,687636,253653,1786T2,839营业成本247361268,881287.094304,823323.097货币资金4627370.03663.45782,027105,78482.16982.16183.51388.61493290交易性金融资产32872.9554.4326,6489,973税金及附加1.4271.3971,6791,7951914应收账款193522797129.16330.18931.159销售费用3221234.45536.25837,52239,151应收票据519260280299319管理费用24.78022.98124.96026,26526536其他应收款（合计）32443,8834,1764,4624.759研发费用4.7926.8367,8619.04110397存货18461.8821.6791.5081,374财务费用97-748270455其他流动资产43.00129.02834.37139.60845,042投资收益4,3774,3284,0004,0004,000126252146269147332181,88222658217,69620,40125,74330,57836,421其他权益工具20061.8472.2172.6603,19217,80720,36725,70630,53936379长期股权投资48.41651.05151.04651.04151.037所得税3,3913,7165,5276,7188367固定资产310,905303,280298,254279,872252,559净利润1441616,65120,17923,82028,012在建工程4085844.51238.53533.80030.008少数股东损益8,1119,35211,30013,42515,992无形资产27,17329,84627,67125,80824,2106,3057,2998,87910,39512,02000000EPS元)0.200.230.280330.38其他非流动资产4,8966.7696.7696.7696.769467,033498,418488,920471,296446257202120222023E2024E2025E总负债257,074297,413269,017276,631285,079经着活动现金流111972101,708121715122,105127.484短期借款38550225112663净利润6.30572998,87910,39512.020应付账款123,440139,165148,592157,768167,225折旧摊销82,16982,16183,51388,61493,290应付票据632310.17510.86411,53512.227净营运资金增加-3.112-15,9903298,50011,784预收账款122394423452482其他26,61028,23728,99414,59510,390其他流动负债10,4617,0927,0927,0927,092投资活动产生现金清-74,780-56,127-107,755-68,97667,279235,138247,984254,824261,241268,431净资本支出-69,775-70,776-73,07669,824-66,821长期借款18351,8281,8221.8171,813长期投资变化48.41651,0510应付债券0000其他资产变化36,40234,679848458其他非流动负债8,0499,05110,03911,00812,012资活动现金流-25910-24949-790-14.684-165102193649,42914,19315,39016,648股本变化24813000336,210347,274367,236376,547387,760债务净变化股本3099131,80431.80431.80431.804无息负债变化7,50442,927-26,8528.9029.557公积金82,6418437785,26586,30587,5071120321031-683018,44523,695未分配利润41,6454537952.01247,24241,386归属母公司权益149,217154370163,031158.918154,139少数股东权益186.993192,904204,204217,629233,621主要指标202120222023E2024E2025E202120222023E2024E2025E毛利率24.69%24.2%2489%25.3%25.7%销售费用率9.839%9.719%9.50%9.209%9.00%EBITDA率28.1%26.79%293%29.8%30.4%管理费用率7569%6.479%6.549%6.449%6.10%EBIT率6.3%6.7%7.4%8.1%8.9%财务费用率0.03%-0.21%-0.06%税前净利润率5.49%5.79%6.7%7.5%8.4%研发费用率1.46%1.93%2.069%2.229%239%归母净利润率1.9%2.1%2.3%2.5%28%所得税率19%189%229%22%23%ROA2.49%2.6%3.29%3.6%42%4.29%5.49%6.5%78%202120222023E2024E2025E经营性ROIC5.9%7.3%7.5%9.1%112%每股红利0.040.040.440.520.62每股经营现金流3.613.203.203.213.38202120222023E2024E2025E每股净资产4.814.855.135.004.85资产负债率43%46%429%42%42%每股销售收入10.5811.1612.0012.8213.68流动此率0.540.590580.700.84速动此率0.530.580570.690.84202120222023E2024E2025E归母权益/有息债务8.3910.1611.9412.8613.70PE2825211815有形资产/有息债务315340.0444.0250.0056.64PB1.21.11.2EV/EBITDA554资料来源：WMnd,光大证券研究所调股息率1.9%2.7%3.6%4.7%敬请参阅最后一页特别声明-2证券研究报告